The most popular short-term positions of Shanghai

2022-08-03
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Copper futures continued to dip yesterday, with the main 1902 contract closing at 48980 yuan/ton, down 0.89% on the day, creating a "three consecutive negative" on the daily line. It is worth noting that the main contract of Shanghai copper fell yesterday, with the increase of 5652 positions, which shows that the short position force is gradually growing

the copper market was seriously divided

as of yesterday's closing, the main 1902 contract of Shanghai copper futures had walked out of the "three consecutive negative" and hovered around 49000 yuan/ton

in the spot market, yesterday, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot reported a premium of 140 yuan/ton - 400 yuan/ton for the contract of the current month, a transaction price of 49200 yuan/ton -49260 yuan/ton for flat water copper, and a transaction price of 49360 yuan/ton -49 yuan for premium water copper. In this way, it is necessary to disconnect a force application rod by 500 yuan/ton

insiders said that from yesterday's transaction situation, good copper is still a hot source of goods in the market, and the market transaction response is positive. The psychological price of good copper transaction continues to rise, and the price has been rapidly jumped up, with the premium rising to yuan/ton. However, while Ping was effectively replacing the import, there was no response from copper, and the performance continued to wait and see. The intraday quotation fell to 140-150 yuan/ton of premium, and the downstream consumption was weak. The quotation of wet copper was almost unchanged, with a discount of 50-20 yuan/ton

"the supply of good copper in China is tight. The polarization between good copper and Pingshui Copper is further serious, and the price difference continues to widen. Although the market continues to rise and rise under the guidance of traders, the market has begun to show a fear of high prices, and some traders have shown caution in following up." Ruida futures pointed out. The imported copper has been in a deficit state in the past two months. The source of imported goods has continued to decrease, adding to the export profits. The export performance of smelters has been positive, and the proportion of good copper sources has decreased significantly

the probability of short-term weak shocks is high.

in the macro aspect, China and the United States have recently reached a consensus on economic and trade issues, market risk appetite has been greatly improved, and copper prices have rebounded briefly. From a fundamental point of view, the supply contraction of global smelters this year is obvious due to shutdown, maintenance and other reasons. In addition, the domestic supply of scrap copper makes the global refined copper very scarce

however, as time went on, the macro positive mood cooled, US stocks fell, and the US dollar index rebounded strongly, which suppressed the copper price

"due to the recent upside down of US bonds, the US economy has shown signs of slowing down. In addition, the turmoil in the European market and increased investor uncertainty are expected to be positive for the safe haven currency US dollar, and the copper price is under pressure." CCB futures research said

copper option is a "mirror" reflecting the temperature of copper market. From the perspective of copper option market, the current historical volatility and implied volatility in the same period are at a low level. Some analysts believe that the implied volatility may not rise significantly in the short term

at the same time, the high-speed performance has also been improved.

according to the research and analysis of Ruida futures, at present, China and the United States have reached a consensus on economic and trade issues, which is conducive to global economic development, but the complete solution of the problem remains to be observed. At present, the supply and demand of copper is stable, the contradiction of industrial chain is not prominent, and the short-term shock is expected to be weak. In terms of options, it is suggested to adopt the strategy of high altitude and low price. It is suggested to short the target futures near 49100 yuan/ton, buy cu1901-p-48000, refer to the target position of 48900 yuan/ton, and stop loss position of 49200 yuan/ton. In addition, the volatility strategy can also be adopted to build a wide span portfolio, absorb the time value, sell cu1901-c-52000, and sell cu1901-p-48000 at the same time, with breaking through 48000 yuan/ton and 52000 yuan/ton as the departure standard investment capital, which is relatively low

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